February 1, 2020

2020 Union Budget- A recipe for disaster

the ministry claims 271 million people have come out of the poverty line between 2006 and 2016. We don’t see the results evidently as more than 500 million would have slipped into the poverty line

2020 Union Budget- 
A recipe for disaster

There are many threads that make the nation function. But the most vital is that of finance. Finance and policy seems as the epitome of national building on the day of announcement of the finance bill. The Union Budget can mean many things for the common man, the one who does not understand the political maneuvering. The budget study is similar to the study of butterfly effect, as the larger impact of which can be seen only as time unfolds. In this section we will be presenting the budget in its condensed form, elaborating the agendas and the proposed action plan as the effect of the budget is reserved for another discussion.

The presentation started with the finance minister convincing us with numbers and data. We heard that there was 10% reduction in overall tax reduction and a 4% reduction for households and it was also claimed that 60 lakhs of new tax payers were added into the system. It was also great to note that 40cr returns were filed. The ministry reported 7.4% GDP growth from 2014-19 with average inflation rate of 4.5%. At a time when most people are struggling to meet their income with the inflation growth, the ministry claims 271 million people have come out of the poverty line between 2006 and 2016. We don’t see the results evidently as more than 500 million would have slipped into the poverty line. Between 2014 and 2019 they reported that government has come down from 52.2% to 48.7%.

Going by the finance minister’s presentation, there are three broad areas that this budget is going to address and within the three broad areas there are three areas each, making the budget a nine segment analysis. This is for the 1st part alone, the most relevant part for the common man. The other parts deal with governance, financial markets and taxation, which are reserved for the experts in this area.

Photo by Kevin Ku / Unsplash

In this specific article we will be looking into the nine segments that will affect the common man, but these nine segments have their own share of ripple effect on the others areas of the economy. This budget has its general texture which contains a lot of dependence on private public partnership (PPP), viability gap funding (VGF), and investment proposals which promise to boost employment. Thus we can find these tools at many places in our nine segments.

BROAD AREAS

1.   Aspirational India

2.   Economic Development

3.   Caring for society

Aspirational India

The first area is Aspirational India, which again addresses three different segments. These areas resemble the vision statement of the center through three different mission and sound like long term projects rather than an annual project. The three areas are elaborated below.

Agricultural and Rural development

This is an area of eternal unfulfilled promises, yet the government projects as though this region is their top priority. It is filled with a lot of Yojanas and action plans. The central idea is to double farmer’s income and liberalize markets. The government proposed to bring sustainable cropping patterns and micro irrigation technology among other things. This segment is stuffed with clearly stated sixteen action policies which cover the entire agricultural issue in different capacities and approaches.

Clean water, wellness and sanitation

Cleanliness is an area which needs to be addressed immediately in a state such as India, where it’s really a big concern. The government is heavily dependent on its two policies; Ayushman Bharath and Mission Indradhanush and capitalizes them heavily. It seems that Jal Jeevan and ODF Plus policies are the last arrows left on their quiver. The ministry has proposed a budget allocation of Rs.12300 cr for its ODF plus project and Rs. 11500 cr for the Jal Jeevan project. The government plans to empanel hospitals through Ayushman Bharath in 112 priority districts around the country. These are remote rural areas that have no access to proper hospitals; this is also proposed to foster employment for many to run the hospitals. The tax proceeds from medicine and service is to be used to promote health infrastructure, such as deploying Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to find and diagnose diseases. The ODF Plus seems to be the top priority of the area.

Educational Skills

A new educational policy is proposed which is planned to get into implementation soon. External commercial borrowings and FDI is planned. Apprenticeship degree is planned to be institutionalized in 150 institutions and full-fledged online programs are proposed in top universities across the country. Urban local bodies are mandated to give internship training to freshly qualified engineers for a period of one year. New National Police University and Forensic University is planned to be built. Special training package and bridge course programs are planned for teachers, nurses, etc to help them meet the requirements for their job positions in foreign markets. A total of Rs.99300 cr is allocated for education and Rs.3000 cr is allocated for skill development. A lot of PPP and VGP is part of the execution.

Economic Development

Economic development is the core area of any growing economy. The industry and infrastructure need to be given the emphasis that they deserve, only then can we avoid bottleneck problems and improve supply chain, this would enable better implementation of other policies. The involvement of technology makes the country to compete at the global level

Industry, Commerce and Investment

An investment clearance cell is proposed to be established. 5 New smart cities are planned through the PPP model. Emphasis is placed on the markets for networked products. The Ministry has planned to increase domestic manufacturing. National Technical Textile Mission is to be enforced with an allocation of Rs.1480 cr. NirVik scheme for export credit disbursement is planned to be expanded. An e-market place and a portal is planned to be established in every district. A total of Rs.27300 is allocated for these proposals.

Infrastructure

National infrastructure pipeline is setup and Rs.100 lakh cr is set aside for this and it includes housing, water and education. National Skill Development Agency (NSDA) is delegated to focus on project preparation facilities. The budget also emphasized on the role of start-ups and how it envisaged the youth to be job creators rather than job seekers. A new national logistics policy is under cards. Twelve lots of highway bundles are planned to be monetized. Solar power capacity along railway is proposed to get a new force of expansion. The successful TEJAS type trains are planned to be more in operation to capture iconic destinations. The ministry also plans to corporatize ports and plans on listing them on stock exchanges. Inland waterways are planned to be more organized as it boosts logistics and tourism. The government plans to reduce air pollution by deploying sustainable technology and it also aims to enhance regional airport development increase domestic air travel usage among the citizens through the UDAAN scheme. The national gas grid is planned to be expanded from 16200km to 27000km and a transparent pricing mechanism is expected to be introduced.

New Economy

This segment seems to be the most relevant area considering the paradigm shift in global workspace where dependence on data and related analytics is becoming very popular. For safety of local data, data center parks are planned to be established by incentivizing the private sector operating in this market. Additionally, Rs.6000 cr is proposed to be set aside for improving BharathNet linkage in rural areas. Center for Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) is planned to be revolutionized, so that the complexities in operation will be reduced and made more user friendly. Rs.8000 cr is allocated for development of the National Mission on Quantum Technology and Applications.

Caring Society

The objective of caring society is planned at a very apt time and this proposes to make the place where we live into a better society by respecting the museums, heritage and by an inclusive approach toward Scheduled Casts (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST)

Women, Children and Welfare

There were a lot of data mentioned in this section and most of them bringing an image of greater inclusivity on the ruling government. It was claimed that women enrollment rate has increased and it is higher than that of their male counterpart. The maternal mortality rate has reduced and that, the nutrition status of women has increased. The credit of all these remarkable milestones is attributed to the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao program. It was also said that Rs.35600 cr is allocated for the nutrition development of women. The manual scavenging is said to be replaced by technology and applications, which is a serious concern for employment of the people in this sector as mechanization is bad for them and could lead to a phase of structural unemployment. The fund allocation is as follows:

Scheduled Caste- Rs.85000 cr

Scheduled Tribes- Rs. 53700 cr

Culture and Tourism

The Indian Institute of Heritage and Conservation is proposed to be established. Five important archeological sites around the country are planned to be developed. Many museums around the country are planned to be developed. A Tribal Museum is proposed to be established in Ranchi and a Maritime Museum is planned to be established in Rotak. Rs.2500 cr is said to be earmarked for promotion of tourism. India is said to have moved from the 65thplace to the 34th spot in the global tourism index. As part of the receipts, the foreign exchange earnings are said to be increased to 7.4%.

Environment and Climate Change

Global partnerships have been entered into to bring about sustainable development in this area. The same is said to be done on a ‘Best Effort Basis’. The thermal power plants are going to be inspected and the old ones are said to be closed and bring alternative uses on these lands. This is also believed to benefit the states by contributing to cleaner air.

The budget dealt with many more areas such as financial institutions, governance and taxation changes. But we have confined our analysis only to the first part. On concluding the first part, the finance minister quoted Tamil saint Thiruvalluvar saying that a good kingdom is the one with the following five factors, which he calls as the ‘Five Jewels’. They are; health, wealth, happiness, healthy farm produce and protection. She compared all the five jewels to the action and policies of the ruling government and said that the Five Jewels are present in the current governance, thus, earning itself the status of an ideal people’s government.